Stock Market:

Goldman Sachs: There’s an elevated risk of a big market selloff

“With the S&P 500 close to all-time highs, stretched valuations and a lack of growth, drawdown risk appears elevated.”

“And while ‘buying the dip’ has worked since 2014 , investors are increasingly concerned about the recovery catalyst in the next drawdown as central bank capacity is increasingly questioned and global growth and inflation remain stubbornly low.”

JPMorgan: The odds of a recession starting in 12 months has hit a high

The probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months has never been higher during the current economic recovery. This is according to the economists at JPMorgan.

Wall Street Journal: Even John Bogle, founder and former chief executive of The Vanguard Group, says the retirement options offered by financial institutions are fiction.

Wall Street Journal: “You who are in the stock market, get out now — you will get killed.”

WSJ: The next 1000-point down day is coming

The combination of investor skepticism, a slow economy and a Federal Reserve that keeps talking tough makes it very probable that we are going to get another thousand-point down day very soon. In fact, I am pretty sure we will get two or three within the same few weeks.

“We’re Nearing The End” David Stockman Warns, Retail Investors Are “Heading For The Slaughter”

“…I think gold will soar in value.”

ON GOLD “I think it’s more of an insurance policy and an option on the ultimate failure of today’s form of central banking. When, finally, the Keynesians, who are running all the central banks, when they are totally repudiated, I think gold will soar in value.”

Former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockmansays retail investors are going to take, yet, another very big hit.

80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2016, Economist Warns

“Stocks like Apple, will plunge.”

“U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”

Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.

Billionaire Carl Icahn, for example, recently raised a red flag on a national broadcast when he declared, “The public is walking into a trap again as they did in 2007.”

And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”

Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in the stock market

Most S&P 500 stocks could fall 50% or more if a ‘worst-case’ recession unfolds

“Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, “hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe,” RBC Capital Markets’ global equity team wrote in a research note to clients”

“Deutsche Bank fixed income analysts said last week that given dollar strength, the selloff in stocks and the widening of credit spreads so far this year, their financial conditions index “is now firmly at levels consistent with recession,” and is likely to continue to deteriorate as global liquidity declines.”

A stock-market crash of 50%+ would not be a surprise — or the worst-case scenario

According to several historically valid measures, stocks are now more expensive than they have been at any time in the past 130 years, with the exception of 1929 and 2000 (and we know what happened in those years).

In the past, when stocks have been this overvalued, they have often “corrected” by crashing (1929, 1987, 2000, 2007, for example)

By many, many historically predictive valuation measures, stocks are overvalued to the tune of 75%-100%.

Fortune: Here Comes the Biggest Stock Market Crash in a Generation

The result, according to Edwards, will be a horrific drop that will leave the S&P 500 down 75%, to 550, from its most recent peak, hit last summer, of just over 2,100.

Jonathan Mackay, senior markets strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management ‘Equity Market Is Going to Collapse’

Ignore Stocks, the REAL Crisis is Far Bigger and Far Worse

“Bonds, in contrast, are the bedrock of the entire financial system. They, specifically sovereign bonds, are THE asset class against which all risk is priced globally. This mess will take months if not years to unfold.

Junk bonds were first, emerging market corporates are next, then maybe municipal bonds and eventually sovereign bonds. By the time the smoke has cleared, stocks will be at levels below even the March 2009 lows.

Another stock market crash is coming. Smart investors are preparing now in anticipation.”

Don’t Trust Your Retirement to Dividends Alone

Dividends are not guaranteed payments, and if they get cut, it can affect your portfolio in more ways than one

“First, dividends are not guaranteed payments, but they are frequently viewed as a sign of the underlying company’s overall health. In the event a company cuts its dividend, not only do you lose that income stream, but there’s a very real risk that its shares will drop substantially, too. That reduces the capital you have available to reinvest in another company to make up the loss.”

“Consider what happened to industrial titan General Electric (NYSE:GE) in the financial crisis. At one point during the Oct.-Dec. 2007 quarter, General Electric’s shares closed above $42 per share, and it increased its quarterly dividend to $0.31 per share. Yet that dividend represented the last time General Electric was able to increase its payment until after the financial crisis passed. Instead, its next dividend move was a drastic cut, to $0.10 per share in late Feb. 2009.”

Wall Street Journal: Why buying gold now could be a lot like buying stocks in 2009

·         Technical trading patterns suggest gold may finally be breaking out into a bull market.

·         Gold remains out of favor despite the recent rally.

·         The Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates is constrained.

·         The overpriced U.S. dollar has limited room to run.

·         Real interest rates are heading lower around the world as central banks get creative.

·         Physical gold may be difficult to acquire in the coming years.