LOS ANGELES, Nov. 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- On June 25th 2015 an opinion piece entitled "What's the Matter with Polling?" by Cliff Zukin was published in the New York Times. In it, Mr. Zukin detailed how the rapid adoption of cell phones and rapidly diminishing numbers of survey respondents has hindered the ability of public opinion researchers to conduct accurate polling.
Millennials, who represent 56% of America's eligible voters, are one of the largest demographics in the U.S. who are slipping through the cracks with most public opinion polls. Since 85% of Millennials own a cell phone instead of a landline, Millennials cost twice as much to reach since regulatory restrictions prohibit calling cell phones - not landlines - with an autodialer.
The generational shift from landlines to cell phones, combined with the Millennials' waning desire to take surveys, is rendering opinion polls worldwide unreliable and making it ever more difficult to predict outcomes in politics and financial markets. Just last week, when every poll in Colombia had predicted the passing of a referendum vote for peace with the rebel guerrilla army, FARC, 50.22% of Colombians rejected the peace deal and sent the Colombian peso plunging.
Here at home, most recent polls predict that Secretary of State Clinton will win the election and that belief has been priced into the markets in much the same way that 'Bremain' was priced into markets prior to the 'Brexit' vote. Jack Hanney, a senior partner with the nation's leading gold IRA dealer, Patriot Gold Group, states that the "Associated Press and Reuters polls got the Brexit referendum wrong and they're going to get the U.S. presidential election wrong too." His logic is supported by recent political polls that incorrectly forecasted elections in Turkey, Scotland, Canada and Greece.
Jim Rickard, author of the book "Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis," goes one step further than Hanney to say that "Trump will win, the Dow will drop over 1,000 points and gold will gain $100 overnight." These sentiments are shared by many leading political and precious metal analysts who are hedging their bets as it's widely believed that if Trump does pull a Brexit-style upset, gold and silver will move up as much as 20% within a week from today.
In a country whose government was founded 238 years ago to protect every citizen's right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, who'd have predicted living in the constant state of fear created by terrorism, systemic corruption, rising inequality and economic recession? If nothing else, the sad state of affairs in America today demonstrates that any outcome is possible. And the polls are no different.
Take heed of the recent warnings from the Huffington Post and Wall Street Journal: "the world will look so different six months from now" that Americans should "prepare themselves for the recession [and] hide in gold."
In early 2016, physical gold hit $1,050 an ounce, which marked a level that gold investors hadn't seen since the latter half of 2009. After hitting $1,900 an ounce in 2011, gold shed 45% of its value as the U.S. economy improved, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and the Federal Reserve teased at, and finally began, raising its benchmark federal funds rate.
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Gold price to 2 month high as fiery Trump declares New American Order - 'Trumponomics': Politics and economic policy in 140 characters - The 'intelligence' according to Trump - Trump, Putin and Russia - the great bromance - Trump - Bull in a China shop - Trade and currency wars with China and other nations - Trump - Fan of gold and golden tweets - Conclusion - Trump may be the 'Golden Ticket' "The market is now worrying about what would come out from the new administration," Bob Takai, chief executive officer and president of Sumitomo Corp.Read More
U.S. lawmakers recently introduced legislation calling for 2020-dated coins in commemoration of Muhammad Ali, the legendary boxer, advocate and philanthropist. The Muhammad Ali Commemorative Coin Act, numbered H.R.579 in the House and S.166 in the Senate, seeks up to 100,000 $5 gold coins in 90% gold and up to 350,000 silver dollars in at least 90% silver.Read More
Half a world away at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz made remarks earlier this week that the US should "get rid of currency." Physical cash means there is no one else standing between you and your savings. But Professor Stiglitz and his colleagues don't want that.Read More
This looks more like the beginning of a market correction than the start of a serious bull run, according to Julian Emanuel, U.S. equity and derivatives strategist at UBS. "The wall of worry which has supported stocks for 8 years has given way to a deep sense of hope and optimism," Emanuel said in a recent research note.Read More
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